Influence prediction in collaboration networks

MIT PRIMES-USA, 2023 – 2024. Network science research with Laura Schaposnik. Author order on both papers is alphabetical.

The question: in a growing collaboration network (e.g. arXiv co-authorship), can we predict today which nodes will become the most influential later, before the edges that make them influential exist?

Algorithm. Proposed and evaluated an algorithm that combines path-based link prediction with influence-maximization heuristics to identify future vital nodes in weighted collaboration networks.
New similarity metrics. Introduced RA-2 and quasi-local RA-2, extensions of the resource-allocation index for link prediction.
Simulation and evaluation pipeline. Built the pipeline that sweeps 7 link-prediction metrics × 12 centrality measures × 8 selection algorithms under both simple and complex contagion models.
Wrote the initial manuscript for the empirical arXiv study (Lin et al., 2026), building on the earlier social sphere model (Lin et al., 2024).

References

2026

Physica A
Influence prediction in collaboration networks: An empirical study on arXiv

M. Lin, L. P. Schaposnik, and R. Wu

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2026

Abs DOI Bib HTML

Combines path-based link prediction with influence-maximization heuristics to identify future vital nodes in weighted collaboration networks, evaluated on arXiv co-authorship data. Introduces the RA-2 and quasi-local RA-2 similarity metrics. Authors are listed alphabetically.
@article{lin2026influence, title = {Influence prediction in collaboration networks: An empirical study on {arXiv}}, author = {Lin, M. and Schaposnik, L. P. and Wu, R.}, journal = {Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications}, volume = {689}, pages = {131451}, year = {2026}, doi = {10.1016/j.physa.2026.131451}, }

2024

arXiv
The social sphere model: Heuristic influence prediction in evolving networks

M. Lin, L. P. Schaposnik, and R. Wu

2024

Abs arXiv Bib HTML

A heuristic model for predicting the future influence of nodes in evolving networks, developed as part of MIT PRIMES-USA. Authors are listed alphabetically.
@misc{lin2024social, title = {The social sphere model: Heuristic influence prediction in evolving networks}, author = {Lin, M. and Schaposnik, L. P. and Wu, R.}, journal = {arXiv preprint}, year = {2024}, }